Monday Roundup

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Perhaps at last we are beginning to see the light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel. Pfizer announced positive initial results from the phase three trial of its two dose COVID-19 vaccine.

“Today is a great day for science and humanity. The first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine’s ability to prevent COVID-19,” said Dr. Albert Bourla, Pfizer Chairman and CEO. “We are reaching this critical milestone in our vaccine development program at a time when the world needs it most with infection rates setting new records, hospitals nearing over-capacity and economies struggling to reopen. With today’s news, we are a significant step closer to providing people around the world with a much-needed breakthrough to help bring an end to this global health crisis. We look forward to sharing additional efficacy and safety data generated from thousands of participants in the coming weeks.”

The Wall Street Journal explains (in part) that ‘

“When will the Pfizer vaccine be ready for [emergency use] authorization?

“It will be several more weeks at the earliest, because researchers and regulators still need to make sure the shot is safe. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has said it wants to see two months’ worth of safety outcomes after vaccination for at least half of the people participating in any large, final-stage clinical trial before it considers authorizing a Covid-19 vaccine. The FDA says this will allow identification of any side effects, such as neurological or heart conditions, that weren’t apparent immediately after vaccination. So far, no serious safety issues have been found, Pfizer says. It expects the two months of safety data later this month, and can ask the FDA to authorize the vaccine soon thereafter. It isn’t yet clear how long the FDA will take to make a decision.

“When will people start getting vaccinated?

“Shots from Pfizer and BioNTech could start becoming available before the end of the year, as production has already begun, but initial supplies will be limited. Pfizer says it expects to produce up to 50 million doses globally in 2020—enough for 25 million people because the vaccine is given in two doses—and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021. This means only the highest risk groups, such as front-line health care workers, could be inoculated this year. Many more doses would be needed to cover the U.S. and global population. Other Covid-19 vaccines in development will likely be needed for everyone to get vaccinated. Their makers have projected they could produce billions of doses next year if their vaccines are successful in clinical testing.”

The Centers for Disease Control released a study of hospital readmissions of COVID-19 patients from March through July 2021.

Among 126,137 unique patients with an index COVID-19 admission during March–July 2020, 15% died during the index hospitalization. Among the 106,543 (85%) surviving patients, 9% (9,504) were readmitted to the same hospital within 2 months of discharge through August 2020. More than a single readmission occurred among 1.6% of patients discharged after the index hospitalization.

The CDC also offered us guidance on avoiding COVID-19 during the Thanksgiving holidays.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (“CMS”) released Affordable Care Act medical loss ratio rebate data from the latest health insurer reports for the three year period ending in 2019. The medical loss ratio data is broken out into three cohorts — individual insurance (minimum MLR 80%), small group insurance (minimum MLR 80%), and large group insurance (minimum MLR 85%). Each cohort then is further broken down state by state which no doubt increase the rebates. FEHB plan insurer rebates sensibly are paid to the the carrier’s contingency reserve, which is FEHB lingo for a premium stabilization fund.

Katie Keith in the Health Affairs blog offers her insights into tomorrow’s California v. Texas oral argument before the U.S. Supreme Court. C-SPAN will play the audio live on radio and the internet.

“The main issues to listen for are:

  • “Do the challengers—a coalition of states led by Texas and two individuals—have standing to challenge the ACA?
  • “Is the individual mandate, with a $0 penalty, unconstitutional?
  • “If the mandate is unconstitutional, is it severable from the rest of the ACA? If not, which other ACA provisions should be struck down alongside the mandate?”

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