Based on the Centers for Disease Control’s COVID-19 Data Tracker website, here is the FEHBlog’s chart of new weekly COVID-19 cases and deaths over the 14th week of 2020 through 11th week of this year (beginning April 2, 2020, and ending March 17, 2021; using Thursday as the first day of the week in order to facilitate this weekly update):
and here is the CDC’s latest overall weekly hospitalization rate chart for COVID-19:
The FEHBlog has noticed that the new cases and deaths chart shows a flat line for new weekly deaths because new cases greatly exceed new deaths. Accordingly here is a chart of new COVID-19 deaths over the period April 2, 2020 through March 17, 2021):
These charts are moving in the right direction, fingers crossed. Here is a COVID-19 vaccinations chart for the past three months which also uses Thursday as the first day of the week:
As of today just over 67% (2/3s) of the U.S. population over 65 and 30% of the vaccination eligible U.S. population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination. 2.5 million doses were administered yesterday.
Nevertheless,. the Wall Street Journal reports today that
Federal officials this week warned that the U.S. may be on track for another surge in Covid-19 cases, trailing Europe by a few weeks in a pattern that has been seen throughout the pandemic.
European countries now implementing new lockdowns amid a resurgence in infections each took an upward trend after disregarding known mitigation strategies, said Centers for Disease Control and Prevention head Dr. Rochelle Walensky, noting it was a warning sign for the U.S.
France on Friday imposed a monthlong lockdown in Paris and other parts of the country. Italy earlier this week implemented new restrictions.
The U.S. in general has followed the European Union by a few weeks in the dynamics of the outbreak, Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week. In Europe, cases came down, plateaued and then countries pulled back on mitigation methods and had a rebound in cases, he said in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal.
“They are in the process of a rebound now, which is really something we absolutely want to avoid,” Dr. Fauci said. He added that given the current level of community infection in the U.S., it is risky to pull back on all the preventive modalities.
The U.S. pace of COVID-19 vaccination is much quicker than Europe’s. Yet, the Journal article concludes as follows:
The majority of Americans who have been fully vaccinated are ages 50 and up, according to CDC data.
But with the U.S. choosing to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for older or vulnerable adults—who are at greater risk for serious complications and death from Covid-19—it means that those who are perhaps more likely to move about the community are going to be vaccinated later, according to both Dr. [Emily] Martin and Dr. {Yonatan] Grad.
“It makes sense, if your goal is to reduce deaths, to focus on vaccinating those at highest risk of dying if infected,” Dr. Grad said, adding, “there are some contexts where you would want to vaccinate those who are at highest risk of transmitting to get cases down, in order to reduce deaths.”
The FEHBlog assumes that those other contexts which Dr. Grad has in mind involve situations where the risk of rapid death from the disease is low. Before long the U.S. will be adequately vaccinated from the aged to the younger groups.